In the lead up to the 18th Annual Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast we asked experts from CRU Analysis and Wood Mackenzie what they think are the key iron ore themes and factors for 2015.
Here is what CRU’s Iron Ore Team had to say:
> The displacement cycle continues. Who’s next in line after Chinese domestic producers and non traditional exporters?
> The stickiness of supply is set to increase, with the resilience of Chinese domestic supply also stepping up next year.
> Sharp falls in oil prices and currency depreciation are moving the cost floor for iron ore lower. What implications for the price outlook and miners’ profitability?
> Diverging trends in iron ore; fines vs pellets. Are the weakening Japanese and European economies threatening the recent strength in pellet premium?
> Raw materials are falling, but so are steel prices. What implications for BF mills’ profitability?
Here is what Andrew Hodge of Wood Mackenzie had to say:
> Will the Chinese residential property sector emerge from recession? If not, will Chinese steel mills continue to export their way out of trouble, and if so, to what extent can the world absorb excess Chinese steel?
> Chinese supply response to low prices – to what extent can China’s high cost privately owned mines along the coastal belt cut costs (or benefit from lower taxes) to remain in business?
> Miners ex-China will continue to cut capex programmes and reduce operating costs to a minimum. More mines will be forced to close.
> Will new buyers emerge for distressed assets? Sovereign wealth funds, private equity, Indian steel groups?
Join a host of analysts and major iron ore producers at the premier iron ore meeting place this March in Perth. For more information visit: www.globalironore.com.au