The outlook for mineral sands and rare earths

With world demand for titanium dioxide (TiO2) estimated at 7.25 million tonnes in 2025, the mineral sands sector is regaining momentum upstream, having only recently recovered from a downturn in 2022.

However, Reg Adams of Artikol UK says that with memories of the downturn still fresh, the overall industry mood is subdued – and while things are now picking up, there are still some major market forces to reckon with.

“We’re well below the long-term global demand trendline,” Adams said, ahead of the Mineral Sands & Rare Earths Conference.

“There was a big drop in 2022, then only a gradual climb back over the past three years. So, it’s natural for the entire industry value-chain to feel cautious – especially in light of recent developments.”

China is claiming a bigger share of the world TiO2 pigment market

Arguably the most impactful of these developments is an upsurge in Chinese suppliers’ share of the global TiO2 pigment market.

There are now 18 world-scale TiO2 producers in China, each with a capacity of more than 100,000 tonnes per year.

Many have invested in modern plants, expanding the country’s output of both sulphate and chloride TiO2 from 3.8 million tonnes in 2021 to 4.7 million tonnes in 2025, approaching 65 percent of total global output.

Adams claims this has prompted the permanent closures of several pigment plants elsewhere.

“It’s given Western producers and the multinationals a bit of a battering, he said. “In 2023/24 Chemours, Cosmo, Kronos and Venator closed plants in Canada, Germany, Korea and Taiwan. During the first quarter of 2025 Tronox closed a chloride TiO2 pigment plant in Holland. In the final quarter of 2025, Venator declared bankruptcy and shut down all four of its remaining plants in England, Germany, Malaysia and Spain.

“There are signs that various investors are trying to pick up the pieces and some of those plants may restart, but that won’t be immediate. It’ll take a lot of work to overhaul them, work out why they weren’t profitable and introduce cost-saving improvements.”

Elsewhere, the wave of TiO2 plant closures continues to roll, with Ishihara and Tayca planning to shut down their respective sulphate TiO2 plants in Japan before the end of this year.

Other producers are also weighing up closures for their weakest-performing assets, sending shockwaves around the global community.

However, Australia – which houses two of Tronox’s strongest-performing TiO2 plants – has been spared.

“Australia’s position in this scene is quite favourable because its two plants are among the best in Tronox’s portfolio. Both the Kwinana plant and the Kemerton plant remain open and they are very valuable assets, with access to nearby feedstock sources.”

Non-Chinese pigment producers seek Government tariff protection

Additionally, TiO2 producers in several countries have sought to block the inroads Chinese suppliers are making into foreign markets.

“They believe the products are underpriced and Chinese suppliers are selling at less than fair value, swamping their local markets.”

A steep tariff of 30 percent on imports of Chinese TiO2 into the US has been in place since 2018. As a result, imports from China were cut back from nearly 70,000 tonnes in 2018 to less than 20,000 tonnes last year.

Following rigorous anti-dumping investigations by Government authorities in the European Union, India, Brazil and Saudi Arabia, tariffs on imports from China into those regions were imposed last year.

“Collectively, those four regions import around 750,000 tonnes from China,” Adams said. “So, the countermeasures could make a difference.”

There is, however, a big question as to whether the tariffs are high enough to completely deter Chinese exports.

“The pre-tariff price differential was high. The average price for Chinese pigment in, say, Brazil or India was about US$2 per kilo, whereas the price that domestic producers or Western multinationals require in order to make a decent profit is at least $US3 per kilo.” Adams said.

“The import tariffs are nowhere near enough to make up for that dollar per kilo differential. So, they will hurt Chinese suppliers and their profit margins, but might not be sufficient to completely shut them out.”

Moreover, the import tariffs have been bitterly challenged by pigment consumers in their countries of origin, and it remains unclear as to whether their voices may impact future outcomes.

“Many of the companies in the EU, Brazil, India and Saudi Arabia that make paint and ink, or process plastic, were quite happy to have good-quality, low-price, Chinese TiO2 pigment. When they were consulted during the anti-dumping investigations, they strongly opposed the threat of tariffs.”

Feedstock market is more comfortable

Upstream, the TiO2 feedstock sector is enjoying more favourable conditions, with suppliers all over the world still hungry for quality minerals.

Globally, Adams says total demand for feedstocks was 9.5 million tonnes (TiO2 units) last year – just over 8 million tonnes of which was required for pigment.

Better still for Australia, in China – the world’s largest pigment consumer and producer – it is mainly chloride pigment driving this demand. To make this product necessitates higher grade minerals, like those found in Australia.

“China’s main TiO2 resource is ilmenite with only 48 percent TiO2 content. That is okay for making sulphate pigment or for smelting. But to satisfy the growing appetite for chloride pigment, China’s TiO2 manufacturers are pretty much obliged to buy high-grade feedstock from outside. And there is certainly no question of tariffs being imposed on imports into China,” Adams said.

Rio Tinto reviewing its position in mineral sands

A further key development comes from Rio Tinto, the world’s largest titanium feedstock supplier. Under new management, it recently announced the company is reviewing its presence in the mineral sands industry, as part of its “stronger, sharper and simpler” campaign.

“There may be more opportunities for them to profit from sectors other than borates and mineral sands,” Adams said. “Alongside iron ore, aluminium, copper and lithium are of great interest to Rio Tinto.”

With this in mind, the fate of Rio Tinto’s mineral sands mines and ilmenite smelters across South Africa, Canada and Madagascar remains unclear.

“Of course, these operations are continuing to function as before, but they’re up for sale (or joint venture) to a candidate who comes in with a reasonably good offer.

“It’ll be interesting to see what Rio Tinto’s position is as a result of this review and indeed who might come forward to take on those businesses.”

Iluka is pivoting to rare earths

Meanwhile, the world’s second largest feedstock producer, Iluka, headquartered in Perth, has adapted by quickly diversifying into the rare earths business.

Adams says this will be an increasingly important revenue stream for both major players and aspiring entrants.

That’s because mineral sands – i.e. titanium and zircon minerals – often occur in association with monazite – the ore from which rare earths can be extracted.

“The appeal of gaining value from the rare earth content has become much more apparent, with so much attention focused on electric vehicles and sustainable energy sources fostering demand for batteries and permanent magnets,” Adams said.

“Iluka has rightly honed-in on this, and it aims to bring its rare earth refinery in Western Australia on-stream next year. Thus, Iluka will process monazite into rare earth concentrates, and then go one step further, separating the rare earth elements. In other words, it’ll be increasing the value it’s getting out of the stuff.”

“It will also be exploiting its large stockpile of tailings – around 1 million tonnes – at Eneabba near Geraldton, which had been accumulating for many years.

“Establishment of the refinery will also be important for Iluka’s mining prospect in Wimmera, Victoria, which is potentially a rich source of rare earths as well as titanium and zirconium. Moreover, there should be spare capacity to cater for processing monazite from other Australian mining companies.”

A renewed focus on Murray Basin rutile

In December 2025, Iluka also announced that it is suspending production at its Cataby mine and synthetic rutile plant in Western Australia for six to twelve months, citing high inventory levels and uncertain customer order prospects.

Meanwhile, the company recently commenced production at its new Balranald mine in the New South Wales section of the Murray Basin.

“It’s a rutile-rich orebody, which also offers substantial quantities of ilmenite and zircon. So, Balranald will be the next string in Iluka’s bow,” Adams said.

News of Iluka’s previous exploration ventures in Canada, Kazakhstan and Sri Lanka seems to have dried up and the company finally ceased mining mineral sands in the US about ten years ago.

Its operating assets and mine development work these days are all focused on Australia, east, west, north and south.

Mergers and acquisitions

M&A activity in the mineral sands industry is also rampant, driven by some major discoveries.

One of these was by Sovereign Metals, a junior mining company, headquartered in Perth, best known for its graphite exploration work. Around four years ago, it surprised the industry when it announced the discovery of a huge high-grade rutile deposit at Kasiya in Malawi.

“It’s alleged to be the largest source of natural rutile in the world. The project won’t be easy because Malawi is 1000 kilometres inland and to reach world markets the company will need access to a port at the western side of the Indian Ocean, probably in Mozambique.

“But Kasiya is such a rich deposit that in the longer term it will become a very important feature in the mineral sands industry, as well as generating substantial quantities of graphite.”

As an indication of just how important it might be, Rio Tinto has acquired a minority stake of nearly 20 percent in Sovereign Metals. In mid-December 2025, the two companies announced that the World Bank has agreed to help finance the Kasiya project.

Another major event in the mineral sands industry was the investment of Yansteel in the Thunderbird mineral sands project in the Canning Basin region in Northwest Australia. The deposit was discovered in 2012 by Sheffield Resources, but a firm decision to commit to a $325 million mining project only came to fruition after a 50:50 joint venture with China’s Yansteel was established in March 2021.

The joint venture made its first shipment of mixed zircon/ilmenite concentrates from the port of Broome in March 2024.

The ilmenite component is exclusively destined for smelting to make chlorinatable slag suitable for Yansteel’s new TiO2 plant.

“Yansteel is a new entrant to the Chinese pigment industry, but it’s coming into the business at significant scale. They’re talking about a 200,000 tonnes/year TiO2 pigment plant in Hebei province, which will become a 500,000 tonnes/year plant before the end of this decade.

“It will rank amongst the largest TiO2 pigment plants in the world. So that’s really been the driving force behind Sheffield Resources development.”

Mineral Deposits Ltd., headquartered in Melbourne, began its gold and mineral sands exploration and mine development campaign in Senegal in 2002 and then made headway with the Grande Côte zircon/ilmenite project there largely thanks to a 50:50 joint venture with Eramet, a Paris-based mining conglomerate , with an ilmenite smelter in Norway.

The Grande Côte mine was brought into production in 2014, but in April 2018 Eramet launched a hostile bid to buy out its joint venture partner, succeeding within three months.

The latest chapter in this story was the purchase of the Norwegian smelter by Ineos in September 2023, which paid Eramet $245 million.

“For Ineos, headquartered in London, the Norwegian purchase complemented its earlier acquisition of two TiO2 pigment plants in Ohio. Tronox had been obliged to divest those plants as a condition of anti-trust approval of the Tronox merger with Cristal back in 2019.

“Ineos was a complete newcomer to the TiO2 business, but its purchase of the Norwegian smelter really consolidated its position in the industry, giving it a captive source of slag,” Adams said. As one of the world’s top ten chemical industry conglomerates, Ineos would be well positioned to enhance its prominence in the TiO2 league if and when it deems that the time is right for further investment.

Meanwhile, Base Resources, headquarted in Perth, has ceased mining at its Kwale mine in Kenya, after reigning for ten years as one of the world’s top five suppliers of rutile, ilmenite and zircon.

Base Resources’ acquisition by Energy Fuels Ltd in 2024 promises to rejuvenate its mineral sands business, based on projects in Madagascar and Brazil, as well as its 49 percent stake in the Donald project in Victoria, led by Astron.

Potential newcomers to the European TiO2 industry

Following Venator’s bankruptcy, declared in October 2025, potential investors are now circling over its assets, which will either be sold off piecemeal or remain shuttered.

The first bid for Venator’s best asset – a chloride pigment plant in Greatham, Northeast England – came from the LB Group, formerly known as Lomon Billions, the largest TiO2 producer in the world.

If that bid gains approval, it will be the first time that a Chinese company has taken ownership of a TiO2 plant outside of China.

“Up until now, all the Chinese TiO2 suppliers have produced all their TiO2 at plants in China. Purchasing the plant in Northeast England would represent a move into foreign direct investment. The move also could be perceived as a way of minimising the impact of European tariff action on Chinese sourced TiO2 pigment. The UK, of course, isn’t part of the European Union, but a big chunk of the sales from Greatham are directed into the European market,” Adams said.

There have also been early bids for two of Venator’s three sulphate TiO2 plants in Europe. Nuova Solmine, an Italian company with local pyrite resources, is negotiating to buy the Scarlino plant, while Indorama, headquartered in Bangkok, is negotiating to buy the Huelva plant in Spain.

“In both cases, the investors they will need to thoroughly evaluate the potential for restarting production,” Adams said.

ICIG, an investment company based in Frankfurt and specialising in chemicals, had declared an interest in buying Venator’s assets in Germany.
However, it is now evident that ICIG’s interest is confined to the lithopone pigment plant in Duisburg and not the TiO2 pigment plant in Krefeld-Uerdingen.

Pricing trends

Investment evaluations will depend heavily on anticipated trends in product pricing, which is soon to reach its trough, Adams said.

In 2025, benchmark prices of pigment, titanium feedstocks and zircon all saw a decline, partly due to weak demand, but also strong supplies.

Within the feedstock sector, the average price for rutile in 2025 was around US$1200 per tonne, compared with US$1700 in 2024.

Synthetic rutile, as per Iluka’s quarterly report, dropped from US$1200 to US$1100 per tonne in the same timeframe.

And for zircon, the drop was even steeper, from US$1900 per tonne in 2024 to US$1640 in the following year.

Although the trough may be near, Adams does not predict strong upward movement from here.

“In line with IMF predictions for world economic growth, I don’t see great prospects for a resurgence in demand for TiO2 pigment, and therefore TiO2 feedstock. We’re still living in a very uncertain time. The impact of US tariffs, political developments, and the threat of warfare and defence spending has an impact on consumer confidence, which isn’t very high.

“That means demand for paint, plastics and construction materials – things which fire up the demand for TiO2 pigment – as well as the demand for ceramic tiles, which is a big driver for the zircon industry, are adversely affected.”

Minority markets getting stronger

The bright spot will, however, be an uptick in demand for titanium from the defence industry, which depends on the metal as a raw material for weapons and aircraft.

“They demand significant quantities. And so, titanium metal manufacture, although it currently accounts for only 6 percent of total global TiO2 feedstock demand, is likely to take a bigger slice of the pie in the short- and medium-term,” Adams said.

Demand growth for rutile and synrutile will also remain constant in the welding industry, which uses these minerals for coating welding rods and flux-core wires.

“Welding is important in all sorts of construction projects, notably shipbuilding, industrial machinery and civil engineering infrastructure. That currently accounts for about 320,000 tonnes of rutile and synrutile. China consumes about 250,000 tonnes/year of reduced ilmenite as a substitute for rutile or synrutile in welding.

“Overall growth in demand for TiO2 feedstocks for welding is jogging along at around 3 percent per annum. So welding will remain a minority end-use for TiO2 feedstock. But one that will definitely maintain its share.”

Further insight

Sharing more expert insights, Reg Adams will present at the upcoming Mineral Sands and Rare Earths Conference in March.

Learn more and register your tickets here.