Course Outline

Introduction – Current Environment and Industry Trends Download Course Brochure

• Business Environment and Relevance
• Oil & Gas Markets and Commodities
• Industry Performance
• Industry Structure, Contractual Arrangements and Value Chains
• Technical, Social and Market Trends

Oil and Gas Project Management and Planning Fundamentals

• Life Cycle Analysis and Planning
• Discussion of Project Management Considerations Across Key Phases
• Exploration
• Appraisal and Development
• Production
• Abandonment

Key Project Valuation Measures

• Net Present Value Concept Discount Factor
• Cost of Capital – review effects of interest rate, cost of equity and debt / equity trends
• Net Present Value
• Internal Rate of Return
• Payback Period
• Profit/Investment Ratio

Petroleum Risk and Uncertainty Analysis

Probability, statistics and key uncertainty concepts
Risk and uncertainty management principles
Appropriate use of probability distributions
Monte Carlo simulation, Latin Hypercube
Developing key probabilistic estimation skills
Probabilistic reserves and resource estimation techniques
Probabilistic cost estimation
Estimating with uncertainty
Expected value concepts and the effects of low oil price
Risk assessment
Financial Risk Analysis
Incorporating risk management in decision making

Decision Analysis for Exploration and Production

• Fundamentals of decision analysis
• Problem Framing
• Value of information
• Real option valuation
• Application of Bayes’ theorem
• Prospect risking and evaluation – effects of oil price on prospect viability
• Portfolio management and optimization in a low oil price environment
• Scenario modeling case studies
• Project vulnerability analysis and mitigation techniques
• Sensitivity Analysis (focusing on effects of oil price downside)
• Tornado diagrams
• Break even analysis
• Distributions, Decision trees and simulation

Corporate Risks and Strategic Decision making

• Recognition corporate influences decision making
• Implications of E&P Corporate Risk Taking and Performance
• Corporate and Financial Risk Tolerance and Vulnerability
• Strategic planning and implementation
• Processes for recognizing a company’s strengths and weakness
• Strategies for taking advantage of strengths and mitigating weaknesses
• Importance of effective communication and management buy in
• Commonly used structured planning techniques
• SWOT and PEST analysis
• HSE, labor and stake holder considerations
• Modelling and structuring complex E&P decisions – exploration plays selection
• Applications of decisions and Risk analysis to the Petroleum sector

Price Risk Management

• Physical Oil & Gas Markets
• Price Risk – How to Evaluate It?
• Market structures and types of transactions to mitigate price risk
• Price Exposure, Definition of Hedging and Hedging principles
• Pricing and Sensitivities

Managing Political Risk & Corporate Governance Solutions

• Understanding, identifying and managing Political Risk
• Political risk mitigating tools (strengths and weaknesses)
• Internal policies & solutions
• Political Risk Insurance and Portfolio Diversification Strategies

Effective Implementation of Strategic Decision Making

• Consistent use of metrics and appropriate target setting
• Decision making processes, useful systems and tools
• Separation of operations from strategy
• Creation of Forums focused on decisions not discussion
• Prioritising high value items and dropping non-essential issues
• Ensuring only viable options are considered and implemented